In 2015, the landmark Paris climate agreement set the ambitious but necessary goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, and ensuring that the increase stays “well below” two degrees Celsius. With the average global surface temperature having already reached 1.1 degrees Celsius above the 20th-century baseline, time is running out to reach this goal. Yet governments have so far failed to agree on a strategy for doing so.

At last month’s 62nd session of the United Nations Climate Change Subsidiary Bodies ( SB62 ) in Bonn – the mid-year negotiations intended to lay the groundwork for November’s UN Climate Change Conference ( COP30 ) in Belém – countries got so hung up on the details of the agenda that little progress was made. Such delays have long characterized the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change ( UNFCCC ), but they are at odds with scientific reality, which demands rapid and unified action.

Building consensus is thus a key challenge facing Brazil’s COP30 presidency. The task ahead is formidable – not only because of the challenges inherent in the UNFCCC process, but also because four interconnected global developments are undermining trust and impeding multilateral cooperation.

First, the global governance architecture, with the UN at its core, is showing signs of disarray. Institutions that were designed to nurture and facilitate cooperation are increasingly hamstrung by bureaucratic inertia and outdated organizational structures. With reform efforts gridlocked, the UN system risks losing its relevance, and multilateralism its credibility.

Second, the rise of transactional diplomacy has meant countries prioritize their own short-term interests over collective long-term needs. This approach – based on a narrow conception of national interest – effectively precludes broad-based cooperation, as it erodes the norms that have traditionally underpinned international engagement.

Third, compromise is increasingly being rejected in favour of “realism”, leading to extreme polarization and entrenched negotiating positions. Multilateral negotiations regularly come down to the wire, and the results are often disappointing, further encouraging transactional engagement at the expense of cooperation and compromise.

Finally, climate change is increasingly taking a back seat to other challenges, with armed conflicts, a global trade slowdown, intensifying growth headwinds and record debt levels consuming countries’ political attention, diplomatic space and financial resources.

Brazil clearly has its work cut out for it. Above all, it must resist the tendency for COP presidencies to emphasize fresh agreements and ambitious commitments – the kind that grab headlines and make the negotiations look like a smashing success but often fall short when the hard work of implementation begins. Brazil’s COP30 presidency must eschew flashy results in favour of pragmatic pathways to deliver on past commitments.

Fortunately, Brazil recognizes this. Its Fourth Letter to the International Community outlines an Action Agenda aimed at making progress on what the world has “already collectively agreed” during previous COPs and in the Paris climate agreement. Specifically, the Agenda seeks to leverage existing initiatives to complete the implementation of the first “global stocktake” under the Paris agreement, which was concluded at COP28.

This focus on previously agreed outcomes is well-suited to the current geopolitical context, in which any agreement can be difficult to reach. Representatives at the SB62 in Bonn did not achieve a consensus, and last month’s G7 summit failed to deliver a joint communiqué. Rather than perpetuating stalemates, the Action Agenda invites stakeholders to make progress where agreement already exists.

The Action Agenda also charts the way forward. It is organized into six thematic “axes,” including stewarding forests, oceans, and biodiversity; transforming agriculture and food systems; and building resilience for cities, infrastructure, and water. “Unleashing enablers and accelerators” in finance, technology and capacity-building – the final, cross-cutting axis – will accelerate implementation at scale.

Since responsibility for the implementation and governance of climate policy is distributed among many actors – which must have some level of trust that others are doing their part – the Action Agenda also establishes “transparency, monitoring and accountability” as top priorities. To this end, Brazil’s COP30 presidency should seek to deliver a set of shared principles and supportive mechanisms.

As COP30 special envoys, we extend our full support to the Action Agenda. By emphasizing consolidation, rather than spectacle, Brazil is setting the stage for a highly productive COP30 – one focused on bridging divides, building trust and delivering genuine progress. The task ahead is daunting, but the chance to rebuild momentum is real.

This commentary is signed by Adnan Amin, CEO of COP28; Arunabha Ghosh, CEO of the Council on Energy, Environment and Water; Carlos Lopes, chair of the African Climate Foundation; Jacinda Ardern, former Prime Minister of New Zealand; Jonathan Pershing, former US special envoy for Climate Change; Laurence Tubiana, CEO of the European Climate Foundation; and Patricia Espinosa, former Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC. The authors are COP30 Brazilian Presidency special envoys for strategic regions.

Jacinda Ardern is a former prime minister of New Zealand.

Carlos Lopes, a former UN under-secretary-general and former executive secretary of the Economic Commission for Africa, is an honorary professor at the Nelson Mandela School of Public Governance at the University of Cape Town, a visiting professor at Sciences Po, and the African Union’s High Representative for Relations with Europe.

Laurence Tubiana is CEO of the European Climate Foundation and a professor at the École Normale Supérieure and a former French ambassador to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Copyright: Project Syndicate